More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:
“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”
How deep will it go?
No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Goldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”
This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:
“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”
Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.
*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.
This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.
Saving for a down payment is a key step in the homebuying process however, it’s not the only monies you may need to include in your budget. Another factor that’s important to plan for is the closing costs and prepaid items required to obtain a mortgage. I cant tell you how many buyers contact us wanting to buy a $200,000 home putting down 5% and thinking they only need $10,000. There is more to this and getting the right details upfront makes a big difference.
What Are Closing Costs?
According to some experts – bla bla bla,
“When you close on a home, a number of fees will be collected. They typically range anywhere from 2% to 5% of the total cost of the home, and can include title insurance, Lender fees, Settlement fees, doc preparation fees, and more.”Experts further share
You will see lots of documents in front of you prior to closing and also on closing day. By closing you will not have enough time to read all the docs. We recommend that you work closely with your real estate agent, lender, and attorney, if you have one, to get all the documents you need ahead of time.
For closing the most important thing to read is the closing disclosure, which shows your loan terms, final closing costs, and any outstanding fees. You are required to acknowledge this form no later than 3 days three days before closing since, once you (the borrower) are required to sign it. If you have any questions about the numbers or what any of the mortgage terms mean, this is the time to ask—your lender and real estate agent are great resources for getting you all the answers you need.”
We are here to discuss the home buying process, to be sure your plan includes budgeting for what you need to purchase your dream home – without any surprises! We can even share a few secrets for how to do this with with less cash out of your pocket. Ask us about our Home Express Mortgage Plan.
Every year, Gallup surveys Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are given a choice between real estate, stocks, gold, and savings accounts.
For the sixth year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment! That has not always been the case. Gallup explains:
“Between 2008 and 2010, covering most of the Great Recession period that saw plummeting home and stock values, Americans were as likely to name savings accounts or CDs as the best long-term investment as they were to name stocks or real estate.”
This year’s results showed that 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 27%. The full results are shown in the chart below.
Now that the real estate market has recovered, so has the belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment.
Whether it is your first time or your fifth, it is always important to know all the facts when it comes to buying a home. With the large number of mortgage programs available that allow buyers to purchase homes with down payments below 20% on conventional financing, you can never have too much information about Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI).
What is PMI?
Freddie Mac defines PMI as:
“An insurance policy that protects the lender if you are unable to pay your mortgage. It’s a monthly fee, rolled into your mortgage payment, that is required for all conforming, conventional loans that have down payments less than 20%.
Once you’ve built equity of 20% in your home, you can cancel your PMI and remove that expense from your mortgage payment.”
As the borrower, you pay the monthly premiums for the insurance policy, and the lender is the beneficiary. Freddie Mac goes on to explain that:
“The cost of PMI varies based on your loan-to-value ratio – the amount you owe on your mortgage compared to its value – and credit score, but you can expect to pay between $30 and $70 per month for every $100,000 borrowed.”
According to the National Association of Realtors, the average down payment for all buyers last year was 13%. For first-time buyers, that number dropped to 7%, while repeat buyers put down 16% (no doubt aided by the sale of their homes). This just goes to show that for a large number of buyers last year, PMI did not stop them from buying their dream homes.
Here’s an example of the cost of a mortgage on a $200,000 home with a 5% down payment & PMI, compared to a 20% down payment without PMI:The larger the down payment you can make, the lower your monthly housing cost will be, but Freddie Mac urges you to remember:
“It’s no doubt an added cost, but it’s enabling you to buy now and begin building equity versus waiting 5 to 10 years to build enough savings for a 20% down payment.”
Believe it or not there are options on conventional loans with less that 20% down where a homebuyer can look at alternative options on mortgage insurance such as lender paid or upfront vs monthly. FHA, VA & USDA are a different type of loan that also will have a similar type of mortgage insurance however the rules are a little different.
If you have questions about whether you should buy now or wait until you’ve saved a larger down payment, let’s get together to discuss our market’s conditions & loan options to help you make the best decision for you and your family.